EIPA Special Update: The Iran Deal

 High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini (L) and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif gesture during a press conference in the course of the talks between the E3+3 (France, Germany, UK, China, Russia, US) and Iran in Vienna, Austria, 14 July 2015.   EPA/HERBERT NEUBAUER

High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini (L) and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Vienna, Austria, 14 July 2015. EPA/HERBERT NEUBAUER

Dear friends,

As you will know, some of the world powers signed an accord with Iran after a fraught and long period of negotiations that ran long past the deadline of June 30th.

 The spin-doctors have been out in force, seeking to drive the media consensus that this is historic, unparalleled and will usher in a new period of West-Iran relations.

We ask you not to believe the hype. This is not a good deal. Putting aside the clear implications for the State of Israel that are obvious, the deal falters on a number of fronts.

Israel’s Ambassador to the US Ron Dermer has made the following points that we at EIPA feel are a rational and responsible take on the deal.

It short, the deal is bad because:

  • It leaves Iran with a vast nuclear infrastructure. It leaves Iran’s current capabilities almost entirely intact and allows Iran to improve those capabilities by conducting research and development on advanced centrifuges and building intercontinental ballistic missiles, whose sole purpose is to carry nuclear warheads.
  • It allows Iran to continue its significant enrichment of uranium far beyond any practical civilian needs. These capabilities have been acquired by deception, concealment, and above all recurring violations of UN Security Council and IAEA resolutions.
  • The Iranian nuclear crisis began and intensified after two massive intelligence failures: Natanz and Arak,  and Fordow.  The international community learned of these major nuclear facilities only after after they were operational. There is no reason to believe that Iran will start cooperating tomorrow, but the deal all but guarantees that it will nonetheless have the nuclear infrastructure it would need to produce a nuclear arsenal.
  • The restrictions being placed on Iran’s nuclear program are only temporary, with the most important restrictions expiring in 10 years, and they are not contingent on Iran’s behavior. In 10 years, Iran could be even more aggressive toward its neighbors, sponsor even more terrorism around the globe and work even harder to destroy Israel, and the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program would still be automatically removed.
  • It sparks a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Because states throughout the region know that the deal paves Iran’s path to the bomb, a number of them will race to get nuclear weapons of their own. The most dangerous region on earth would get infinitely more dangerous.
  • The deal transfers to the Iranian regime’s coffers $150 billion that is now frozen in foreign bank accounts. Tens of billions are likely to flow to the Shiite militias in Iraq, the Assad regime in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Palestinian terror groups in Gaza and other Iranian terror proxies in the region. 

For all these reasons (and indeed more such as the security of the State of Israel) EIPA believes a historic and monumental miscalculation has been made that benefits Iran and nobody else.

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