EIPA Election Special Update

To those of you who sat up all night like we did, a fraternal tip of the hat. To those of you that didn’t, we don’t blame you. In either case, here are the very latest figures:

According to the updated seat map as of now (9.30 am, Wednesday): Likud gets 30 seats; Yesh Atid 17; Shas 9; Blue and White 8; Labor 7; Yamina 7; United Torah Judaism 7; Yisrael Beytenu 7; Joint List 6; Religious Zionism 6; New Hope 6; Meretz 5; and Ra’am 5.

What does all that mean? In our previous pre-poll newsletter we said that this election had little to do with political ideology but whether you were for Prime Minister or against him.

And we also said that Naftali Bennett and his Yamina Party could be the Kingmakers.

Well, we didn’t do too badly, but on the second it wasn’t so clear.

Let’s analyse a bit. Using our ‘visceral’ metric of pro-Bibi or anti-Bibi blocs, the pro bloc appears to have secured 52 seats, the anti 56. That leaves Yamina with 7 and Ra’am – an Arab Party – with 5. To remind you, the magic number for forming a government is 61 seats (there are 120 seats in the Knesset). So, even if Yamina went into the pro-Bloc (which is not certain given the mercurial qualities of both Bennett and Ayelet Shaked), that still leaves the pro-bloc short (as we can say with a reasonable amount of certainty that Ra’am would find it difficult to join this bloc for a myriad of reasons).

Arguably the arithmetic looks slightly more favourable for the Anti-Bloc, but Yamina – a right-wing party, would find itself in coalition with very strange bed-fellows ideologically. This is less complicated for Ra’am, but taking Yamina out of the equation, that bloc stops short too.

Still with us? Good. Let’s summarise this as follows, what the Israeli electorate did (whose turnout dropped down from 70 to 67% this time around compared to last), was take an already fiendishly complicated Ravensburger puzzle, throw it in the air and say to the political parties “You put it back together again”.

That is no easy task. The result, in short, is as divided as the electorate. Whilst there will be lots of noise in the next few days and possibly weeks ahead, reaching 61 at present look intractable for either bloc.

But, and this is important, there are around 400,000 absentee ballots still to be counted, which is much higher than usual given the Covid pandemic. We should know more about these votes by Friday…

Right now the question on everyone’s lips is “Fifth time lucky?” It is certainly looking this morning like the puzzle might need one more toss to see if the pieces can be put together.


Likud leadership primaries kick off

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his key rival within Likud party ranks, former Education and Interior Minister Gideon Sa’ar, are set to face off in Likud primaries on Thursday.

Some 116,048 members of Likud will vote at 106 polling stations across the country from 9 am local time to set the stage for a showdown that makes for the most serious challenge to Netanyahu’s Likud leadership in years.
The polling stations will remain open until 11 pm amid fears that wind and rain could keep voter turnout down, with the preliminary results expected sometime past midnight.
A former aide and senior Cabinet minister under Netanyahu, Sa’ar has long been considered a rising star in Likud and a potential future heir, but while others are patiently waiting for Netanyahu to step down on his own, Sa’ar has been the only one who has dared to take the incumbent head-on.
Netanyahu is expected to brush off Sa’ar’s challenge for the Likud leadership, with Israeli media estimating Sa’ar’s chances to unseat Netanyahu are slim.
Sa’ar’s allies will consider a result of over 30% support of Likud members as a win, positioning their candidate to lead the party when Netanyahu steps down.
However, after failing to build up a coalition in two consecutive votes, Netanyahu’s capacity to form a government in the wake of the third vote cannot be taken for granted.
Netanyahu faces charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three corruption cases in which he is accused of trading legislative or regulatory favors in exchange for lavish gifts or favorable media coverage.
He denies any wrongdoing and has waged an angry campaign against the media and law enforcement officials that he said are bent on ousting him from office.
Outwardly, Likud members have strongly supported their leader and joined in denouncing the alleged “coup” of the liberal elites against him.
Even amid the political disarray, Sa’ar’s challenge is a risky maneuver in a party that fiercely values loyalty and has had only four leaders in its 70-plus-year history. Netanyahu himself has denounced Sa’ar as “subversive.”
Netanyahu said on Wednesday that he “certainly” plans to annex the Jordan Valley in the near future, despite recent reports suggesting plans have entered a “deep freeze” over concerns that the move could potentially intensify confrontation with the International Criminal Court.
The ICC Chief Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda announced on Friday she is ready to investigate whether Israel was committing war crimes in the Palestinian Territories.
Netanyahu in a rare interview conducted with Israel’s Army Radio said, “I intend to lead for American recognition of our sovereignty in the Jordan Valley and in all the settlements in the West Bank, as I have led the recognition of the Golan Heights and Jerusalem, Israel’s capital.”
The premier added that there’s a legal hurdle for annexation during an interim government, “but G-d willing, I will do it when I get elected” – referring to the next general vote in March.
Israel’s longest-serving premier also talked about his relationship with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. According to Netanyahu, Putin told him that “if it wasn’t for you and our relationship, we could have been already at war, in confrontation.”
Netanyahu disclosed that Israel Air Force jets were close to colliding with Russian aircraft on four separate occasions, most likely over Syrian territory, but thanks to close coordination between the armies, these incidents did not occur.
Regarding reports of Netanyahu’s intention to request immunity from the Israeli parliament, he remained tight-lipped, with the deadline for such a request to be submitted expiring next week.
Netanyahu also appeared Wednesday at an election event in the southern city of Ashkelon as rocket fire was launched from the Gaza Strip.
The sirens warning of the incoming rocket fire blared at around 9 pm in Ashkelon and other communities bordering the Hamas-controlled enclave.
IDF said that the Iron Dome missile defense system intercepted a projectile fired at southern Israel. No damage or casualties were reported.
Netanyahu and his wife, Sara, were campaigning in Ashkelon ahead of Thursday’s leadership primaries.
The prime minister was immediately rushed to safety by his security team, a scene reminiscent of a September incident in the city of Ashdod.
“Hamas and Jihad do not want me to win,” Netanyahu said after being allowed back on stage. “The one who tried to make an impression the last time, is no longer with us, and the one who tried to make an impression now should start packing the bags,” he said, referring to the Islamic Jihad commander Baha Abu Al-Ata, who was assassinated by the Israeli military last month.
Three months ago, Netanyahu was evacuated during a rocket siren that blared mid-speech as the prime minister was rallying support a week before the September 17 national ballot.
At the time, Netanyahu’s quick departure off stage was widely criticized by his political opponents.
During the September incident, attendees of the event remained in the auditorium and did not run for shelter.
The winner of Thursday’s vote will lead Likud into Israel’s third general election in less than a year, slated for March 2, where he will face the chief of the Blue & White alliance Benny Gantz.
The article was published on Ynet

Party leaders across spectrum have common message as they cast ballots: Go vote!

Party leaders turned out early Tuesday to cast their votes in Israel’s second national election of the year.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara arrived at their Jerusalem polling station to cast their vote in the Israeli elections Tuesday.

בנימין נתניהו מצביע בקלפי בירושלים

Vying for a fifth term the prime minister said this is a very close election and called on citizens to come out and vote.

This is the second election held in Israel in less than six months after Netanyahu, who is hoping for an unprecedented fifth term in office, failed to form a coalition government after the April ballot.

His Likud party then pushed through a law to dissolve the Knesset, thereby avoiding a situation in which President Reuven Rivlin could task another party leader with coalition building.

The head of the Blue and White Party Benny Gantz voted close to his home in Rosh Haayin, near Tel Aviv.

Blue and White leader Benny Gantz casts his vote (Photo: Tal Shahar)

Blue and White leader Benny Gantz casts his vote (Photo: Tal Shahar)
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The former army chief wished Israelis good luck in the elections as he arrived at the polling station flanked by supporters.

Avigdor Liberman, the leader of the right-wing, secular Yisrael Beytenu party – who could emerge as the kingmaker of the elections – voted with his wife at his home in the West Bank settlement of Nokdim.

Liberman urges all Israelis to vote, calling it “a civic duty.”

Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman and wife Ella (Photo: Amit Shabi)

Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman and wife Ella (Photo: Amit Shabi)

Shaked also called on citizens to vote and claimed there are up to 30% voters still undecided.

Yamina leader Ayelet Shaked (Photo: Shuel Davidpur)

Yamina leader Ayelet Shaked (Photo: Shuel Davidpur)

In the city of Sderot, near the Gaza border, Labor-Gesher chief Amir Peretz told supporters as he arrived to cast his ballot, that every vote counts and everyone should vote.

Labor leader Amir Peretz ( Photo: Avi Roccah)

Labor leader Amir Peretz ( Photo: Avi Roccah)

Voter turnout may be the deciding factor in these elections though it is expected to be low.

The article was published on Ynet